Opinion Arbitrage Opportunities
开始交易Top Volume Comparison (24h)
What will Microsoft (MSFT) close at in 2025?
Matches Polymarket: What will Microsoft (MSFT) close at in 2025?
Match: 100.0%
Opinion Vol (24h):$7,212,319Polymarket Vol (24h):$68,121
| Outcome | Opinion Price | Polymarket Price | Spread | Opinion Vol | Poly Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$440–460 | 0.061 | 0.034 | 2.7% | $415,317 | $16,370 |
$460–480 | 0.305 | 0.305 | 0.0% | $434,463 | $15,446 |
$480–500 | 0.438 | 0.440 | 0.2% | $263,450 | $8,473 |
$500–520 | 0.124 | 0.120 | 0.4% | $92,021 | $10,862 |
$520–540 | 0.012 | 0.005 | 0.7% | $5,186,434 | $103,986 |
$540–560 | 0.005 | 0.006 | 0.1% | $48,372,892 | $2,721 |
>$560 | 0.006 | 0.004 | 0.3% | $86,218,880 | $4,008 |
Highest grossing movie in 2025?
Matches Polymarket: Highest grossing movie in 2025?
Match: 100.0%
Opinion Vol (24h):$4,282,700Polymarket Vol (24h):$1,262,777
| Outcome | Opinion Price | Polymarket Price | Spread | Opinion Vol | Poly Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wicked: For Good | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.4% | $71,566,831 | $4,549,061 |
Zootopia 2 | 0.009 | 0.001 | 0.8% | $4,927,239 | $7,846,796 |
A Minecraft Movie | 0.996 | 0.994 | 0.2% | $9,253,379 | $6,455,091 |
Avatar 3 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.1% | $15,570,025 | $8,339,503 |
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Matches Polymarket: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Match: 100.0%
Opinion Vol (24h):$3,774,961Polymarket Vol (24h):$29,496
| Outcome | Opinion Price | Polymarket Price | Spread | Opinion Vol | Poly Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 (0 bps) | 0.049 | 0.035 | 1.4% | $11,239,570 | $128,363 |
1 (25 bps) | 0.098 | 0.100 | 0.2% | $5,763,505 | $122,008 |
2 (50 bps) | 0.254 | 0.230 | 2.4% | $1,593,036 | $118,080 |
3 (75 bps) | 0.239 | 0.220 | 1.9% | $284,100 | $80,501 |
4 (100 bps) | 0.154 | 0.155 | 0.1% | $1,636,477 | $68,454 |
5 (125 bps) | 0.100 | 0.105 | 0.5% | $4,556,833 | $108,803 |
6 (150 bps) | 0.056 | 0.069 | 1.3% | $17,788,201 | $105,449 |
7 (175 bps) | 0.044 | 0.041 | 0.3% | $14,242,903 | $66,112 |
8+ (200+ bps)Poly: 8 (200 bps) | 0.060 | 0.030 | 3.0% | $14,041,013 | $92,821 |
Gensyn FDV above ... one day after launch?
Matches Polymarket: Gensyn FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Match: 94.7%
Opinion Vol (24h):$3,716,593Polymarket Vol (24h):$5,726
| Outcome | Opinion Price | Polymarket Price | Spread | Opinion Vol | Poly Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$600M | 0.282 | 0.315 | 3.3% | $70,697 | $65,517 |
$800M | 0.106 | 0.115 | 0.9% | $201,151 | $25,802 |
$1B | 0.055 | 0.065 | 1.0% | $2,729,508 | $37,722 |
$1.5B | 0.038 | 0.026 | 1.1% | $708,232 | $4,130 |
$2B | 0.015 | 0.025 | 1.0% | $209,097 | $6,274 |
Bank of Japan decision in January?
Matches Polymarket: Bank of Japan decision in January?
Match: 100.0%
Opinion Vol (24h):$3,635,856Polymarket Vol (24h):$18,953
| Outcome | Opinion Price | Polymarket Price | Spread | Opinion Vol | Poly Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Decrease rates | 0.007 | 0.006 | 0.1% | $66,957,387 | $72,539 |
No change | 0.966 | 0.969 | 0.3% | $30,887,917 | $52,907 |
25 bps increase | 0.011 | 0.017 | 0.6% | $13,745,564 | $45,012 |
50+ bps increase | 0.007 | 0.011 | 0.4% | $32,405,535 | $58,302 |
2026 South Korean Local Elections: Party Winner
Matches Polymarket: 2026 South Korean Local Elections: Party Winner
Match: 100.0%
Opinion Vol (24h):$3,427,436Polymarket Vol (24h):$839
| Outcome | Opinion Price | Polymarket Price | Spread | Opinion Vol | Poly Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic Party of Korea (DP) | 0.921 | 0.895 | 2.6% | $1,914,456 | $6,006 |
People Power Party (PPP) | 0.135 | 0.083 | 5.2% | $2,074,936 | $5,095 |
Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) | 0.011 | 0.018 | 0.8% | $7,337,034 | $4,654 |
Progressive Party (PP) | 0.022 | 0.011 | 1.1% | $5,641,526 | $3,327 |
Largest Company end of 2025?
Matches Polymarket: Largest Company end of 2025?
Match: 100.0%
Opinion Vol (24h):$3,273,630Polymarket Vol (24h):$969,942
| Outcome | Opinion Price | Polymarket Price | Spread | Opinion Vol | Poly Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NVIDIA | 0.986 | 0.983 | 0.3% | $7,791,628 | $7,600,663 |
Microsoft | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0.5% | $23,831,568 | $3,027,510 |
Apple | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.3% | $10,058,397 | $3,418,076 |
Alphabet | 0.005 | 0.004 | 0.1% | $9,280,623 | $3,470,200 |
Other | 0.008 | - | - | $19,480,761 | $0 |
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap
Matches Polymarket: SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap
Match: 100.0%
Opinion Vol (24h):$3,246,038Polymarket Vol (24h):$1,468
| Outcome | Opinion Price | Polymarket Price | Spread | Opinion Vol | Poly Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1T+ | 0.670 | 0.665 | 0.5% | $849,425 | $108,825 |
900B–1T | 0.083 | 0.060 | 2.3% | $1,703,699 | $34,691 |
800B–900B | 0.051 | 0.022 | 2.8% | $2,846,659 | $36,997 |
700B–800B | 0.048 | 0.023 | 2.5% | $6,475,211 | $31,821 |
600B–700B | 0.020 | 0.042 | 2.2% | $7,982,191 | $35,579 |
500B–600B | 0.018 | 0.013 | 0.5% | $4,177,002 | $34,958 |
<500B | 0.018 | 0.025 | 0.7% | $5,310,148 | $41,490 |
No IPO before 2028 | 0.112 | 0.125 | 1.3% | $2,981,612 | $55,505 |
Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
Matches Polymarket: Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
Match: 100.0%
Opinion Vol (24h):$2,767,533Polymarket Vol (24h):$1,806
| Outcome | Opinion Price | Polymarket Price | Spread | Opinion Vol | Poly Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
<15B | 0.233 | 0.220 | 1.3% | $63,842 | $5,304 |
15–20B | 0.238 | 0.096 | 14.2% | $15,892 | $3,740 |
20–25B | 0.255 | 0.155 | 10.0% | $1,648,509 | $6,115 |
25–30B | 0.176 | 0.055 | 12.1% | $2,865,749 | $3,366 |
30B+ | 0.079 | 0.075 | 0.4% | $2,671,081 | $4,236 |
No IPO by June 30Poly: No IPO by June 30, 2026 | 0.347 | 0.420 | 7.3% | $385,495 | $8,296 |
Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q1 2026?
Matches Polymarket: Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q1 2026?
Match: 100.0%
Opinion Vol (24h):$2,740,182Polymarket Vol (24h):$2,530
| Outcome | Opinion Price | Polymarket Price | Spread | Opinion Vol | Poly Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vertiv Holdings (VRT) | 0.736 | 0.775 | 3.9% | $400,057 | $2,935 |
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) | 0.357 | 0.325 | 3.2% | $982,036 | $6,414 |
Ciena (CIEN) | 0.435 | 0.215 | 22.0% | $223,829 | $2,429 |
Pure Storage (PSTG) | 0.196 | 0.390 | 19.4% | $1,078,895 | $227 |
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) | 0.271 | 0.165 | 10.6% | $916,509 | $280 |
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) | 0.062 | 0.105 | 4.3% | $2,234,072 | $873 |
Infinex FDV above ... one day after launch?
Matches Polymarket: Infinex FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Match: 93.1%
Opinion Vol (24h):$2,542,888Polymarket Vol (24h):$680
| Outcome | Opinion Price | Polymarket Price | Spread | Opinion Vol | Poly Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$400M | 0.450 | 0.445 | 0.5% | $166,696 | $26,480 |
$600M | 0.340 | 0.300 | 4.0% | $63,413 | $7,404 |
$800M | 0.180 | 0.175 | 0.5% | $5,333 | $5,257 |
$1B | 0.081 | 0.075 | 0.6% | $2,572,634 | $34,137 |
$2B | 0.046 | 0.040 | 0.6% | $1,243,901 | $11,759 |
$3B | 0.014 | 0.032 | 1.8% | $6,362,260 | $4,023 |
OpenAI IPO by...?
Matches Polymarket: OpenAI IPO by...?
Match: 100.0%
Opinion Vol (24h):$2,284,064Polymarket Vol (24h):$68,118
| Outcome | Opinion Price | Polymarket Price | Spread | Opinion Vol | Poly Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
December 31, 2025 | 0.006 | 0.002 | 0.5% | $3,070,346 | $458,546 |
June 30, 2026 | 0.068 | 0.115 | 4.7% | $2,072,122 | $150,980 |
December 31, 2026 | 0.338 | 0.345 | 0.7% | $313,336 | $135,110 |
What will Tesla (TSLA) close at in 2025?
Matches Polymarket: What will Tesla (TSLA) close at in 2025?
Match: 100.0%
Opinion Vol (24h):$2,263,827Polymarket Vol (24h):$13,300
| Outcome | Opinion Price | Polymarket Price | Spread | Opinion Vol | Poly Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$350–375 | 0.004 | 0.017 | 1.3% | $6,221,376 | $6,493 |
$375–400 | 0.016 | 0.021 | 0.5% | $5,059,309 | $9,351 |
$400–425 | 0.010 | 0.012 | 0.2% | $1,971,247 | $11,546 |
$425–450 | 0.050 | 0.060 | 1.0% | $2,247,381 | $12,731 |
$450–475 | 0.173 | 0.170 | 0.3% | $222,896 | $12,398 |
$475–500 | 0.257 | 0.270 | 1.3% | $601,370 | $10,854 |
>$500 | 0.368 | 0.385 | 1.7% | $1,050,385 | $48,673 |
What will Apple (AAPL) close at in 2025?
Matches Polymarket: What will Apple (AAPL) close at in 2025?
Match: 100.0%
Opinion Vol (24h):$2,147,448Polymarket Vol (24h):$18,626
| Outcome | Opinion Price | Polymarket Price | Spread | Opinion Vol | Poly Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$275–280 | 0.217 | 0.165 | 5.2% | $4,889,995 | $7,593 |
$280–285 | 0.132 | 0.105 | 2.7% | $2,718,776 | $8,476 |
$285–290 | 0.051 | 0.110 | 5.9% | $2,841,652 | $5,913 |
$290–295 | 0.018 | 0.029 | 1.1% | $5,860,168 | $20,186 |
$295–300 | 0.031 | 0.031 | 0.0% | $4,980,382 | $16,565 |
>$300 | 0.014 | 0.006 | 0.8% | $4,038,423 | $22,069 |
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Matches Polymarket: Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Match: 100.0%
Opinion Vol (24h):$2,115,958Polymarket Vol (24h):$76,737
| Outcome | Opinion Price | Polymarket Price | Spread | Opinion Vol | Poly Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tim Cook - Apple | 0.507 | 0.530 | 2.3% | $53,484 | $114,198 |
Dan Clancy - Twitch | 0.469 | 0.455 | 1.4% | $518,872 | $46 |
Brian Armstrong - Coinbase | 0.125 | 0.190 | 6.5% | $8,702 | $5,984 |
Andy Jassy - Amazon | 0.248 | 0.175 | 7.3% | $835,959 | $3 |
Sam Altman - OpenAI | 0.161 | 0.165 | 0.4% | $369,650 | $482 |
Sundar Pichai - Google | 0.329 | 0.145 | 18.4% | $475,171 | $131 |