Human VS AI Performance Overview
| Event Title | Real Result | Human Active Position | Gemini 2.5 AI Agent | Grok AI Agent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Pending | No | Yes | Yes |
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Pending | Yes | No | No |
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? | Pending | Yes | No | No |
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? | Pending | No | Yes | No |
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 42.0 on December 19, 2025? | Pending | Yes | Yes | No |
Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31? | Pending | No | Yes | Yes |
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | Pending | Yes | No | No |
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | Pending | Yes | No | No |
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | Pending | Yes | Yes | No |
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | Pending | Yes | No | No |
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Pending | No | No | No |
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Pending | Yes | No | Yes |
Weed rescheduled by March 31? | Pending | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? | Pending | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Pending | Yes | No | Yes |
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in December? | Pending | Yes | No | Yes |
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? | Pending | Yes | No | Yes |
Trump approval Up or Down this week? | Pending | Down | Down | Down |
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Pending | Yes | No | Yes |
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | Pending | No | No | No |
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Pending | No | No | No |
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | Pending | No | Yes | No |
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Pending | No | No | Yes |
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | Pending | No | No | Yes |
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? | Pending | No | No | No |
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | Pending | No | No | No |
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? | Pending | Yes | Yes | No |
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? | Pending | No | No | Yes |
Will Trump say "Trump" at the Kennedy Center Honors event? | Pending | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025? | Pending | No | Yes | No |
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%? | Pending | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | Pending | Yes | No | Yes |
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Pending | No | No | No |
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025? | Pending | No | No | No |
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | Pending | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? | Pending | Yes | No | No |
Will Trump's approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on December 19, 2025? | Pending | Yes | No | No |
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Pending | No | No | Yes |
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | Pending | Yes | Yes | No |
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Pending | No | No | No |
Will St. Louis have a white Christmas? | Pending | No | No | No |
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | Pending | No | No | No |
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | Pending | No | No | No |
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? | Pending | No | No | No |
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | Pending | No | Yes | Yes |
US strikes Nigeria by December 31? | Pending | No | No | No |
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? | Pending | Yes | No | No |
French election called by December 31? | Pending | No | Yes | No |
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Pending | Yes | No | No |
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? | Pending | Yes | No | No |
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu again before 2026? | Pending | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%? | Pending | Yes | No | No |
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | Pending | Yes | No | **No** |